We’ve recently taken note that beauty contests are becoming a common PR tatic with a growing number of organizations in Russia. Just last week, we reported a Miss Constitution day contest, and earlier this year a contest for the nuclear power industry employees. A reader recently called attention to an entry on the Russian Ministry of Defense web site. No dates, winner, or any other data is listed, but there are photos. One is presented here, and more can be found on the originating site. Here the west, these events have all but disappeared after being branded “sexist”. No such charges are made in Russia, where it can be argued that women are much more in control of social customs.

Today in Russan History

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Russia has fallen on hard times from the same cause as the rest of the world, but it’s different. Russia’s recent boom was fueled by artificially high, unsustainable oil prices. The high prices are also one of the major causes of the current economic crisis that has erased demand for oil and taken the air out of the speculative bubble that pushed prices so high.  The same falling oil prices have brought Russia’s economic boom to a screeching halt.

President Dmitry Medvedev said Russia may join the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and reduce production to support the oil price.

“We have to defend ourselves,” Medvedev said in the Ural Mountains city of Kurgan today. “This is our revenue base, both from oil and from gas,” he said. “I believe that we mustn’t rule out any options.”

Defensive measures may include “cutting the volume of oil production and participating in existing organizations of suppliers, and in new organizations, if we can reach such an agreement,” Medvedev said in comments broadcast on state television. (Bloomberg)

My take is that Russia is not likely to join OPEC. Membership in the cartel would limit Russia’s autonomy. Both are likely to cut production, but it should not make much difference. Both OPEC and Russia need to learn that oil above $50 a barrel is not sustainable. When the price goes above $50, the profitability of most non-oil businesses declines, bankrupting their customers. It’s far better to charge your customer a bit less, allowing him to stay in business and continue buying form you rather than bankrupt him for a quick short term gain. Forecasting your spending on prices that will ultimately bankrupt your customer will also bankrupt you in the end.

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Russia’s recent economic growth has been almost entirely due to its ability to deliver record oil and gas production at record prices. With prices in free fall, Russia’s economy will be stressed much more more than much of the world. With much of its revenues coming from oil, the government’s ability to intervene will be limited, and it’s ambitious spending plans will be scaled back. Hopefully, greater economic diversification will come as a result, but sadly it won’t come without some pain for the average Russian.

“In the short-run, market participants will focus on both OPEC and perhaps even non-OPEC producer responses to balance the market.”

“A temporary drop below $25 is possible if the global recession extends to China and significant non-OPEC production cuts are required,” it said.

“In our view, oil prices could find a trough at the end of Q1 2009 or early Q2 2009 with the seasonal slowdown in demand. Then, as economic activity starts to strengthen, we see oil prices posting a modest recovery in the second half of 2009.”

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The Putin / Medvedev government’s intense adversarial stance towards the west is a relatively new phenomenon that reached its peak with in invasion of Georgia. Just about every American I know is troubled by the rhetoric on both sides, and this is particularly true for those of us with Russian friends and family. Many Russians have residual resentment for the decade of the 90’s when they integrated (somewhat) into the world economy and established a market economy of their own.  During this period there was a small flood of people from the west who visited Russia, most enjoying a cheap exotic vacation while many looked for opportunities to invest in the new economy. Not all of us were polite. This could be the origin of  deep resentment many of Russia’s new ruling class feel towards us.  Not every Russian is comfortable with their government’s rhetoric, but very few are willing to publicly speak out. This is not the case with poet and author Lev Rubinshtein.

I know now who is yelling the loudest and the most forcefully about those “cursed nineties,” when Russia was “trampled in the mud,” and people “wiped their feet” on her, during the epoch of Russia’s Great Humiliation by the Horrible West. I know, who strains themselves most of all while hysterically recounting the Worldwide Russo-phobic conspiracy. [A conspiracy] led, as is easy to guess, by that infernal America, for whom Russia’s undeniable greatness– as a country with unrecognized constructive-destructive possibilities and an inexhaustible oil-and-gas-based spirituality– is the single, though insurmountable barrier to global domination. I know who they are. (complete text at The Other Russia)

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Recently Russian President Mevedev proposed changing term limits for national elected offices to 6 years from four, with two consecutive terms permitted. Most memebrs of the Duma (Russia’s parlimetary body) seem only too eager to amend Russia’s constution to reflect these changes. Support is not unanimous among a vocal group that is not in power. Their views are represented here:

In today’s conditions, we categorically oppose discussing any possible changes to the Russian Constitution. Amendments like this can only be discussed when democracy is restored in the country. Today, when the citizens are numbed by unbridled government propaganda; when independent sources of information are inaccessible to the majority of the population; when the ruling “parliament” is appointed by the Executive Branch and independent politicians do not have the chance to get their ideas across to wide segments of the public; any discussions of amending the Constitution will resemble profanity and farce, and the amendments themselves will easily be dragged through in a way convenient for the ruling faction.

By voicing their intent to extend their own terms, the Russian authorities prove only one thing– that they are interested in nothing other than the effective usurpation of power in the country for an indeterminate period. This contradicts the goals of democratizing the country, and the return of Russia to the European path of development.

We are against turning Russia into a backwards, third-world authoritarian regime, where the rulers remain in power for life through different pretexts. The main purpose of “Solidarity,” the united democratic movement we are creating, is the unification of Russia’s citizens, for the sake of restoring democracy, order and lawfulness in the country. The founding congress of the group will take place on December 13, 2008.

We call on all Russians who value freedom to join with the Solidarity movement. [Solidarity] will fight against the illegal actions of the ruling junta, whose intention to change our Constitution is aimed at usurping power and perpetuating their rule, which is calamitous for Russia’s interests. (The Other Russia)

Today in Russian History

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While he is opposed the the United States and NATO building defense facilities that would counter act rogue missiles, Russian president Medevedev seems to think Russia requires a similar capability. it’s important to note that new US and NATO missile installations will have no offensive capability to defend against.

Before you protest the actions of another, you need to put your own house in order. Seems to be forgotten by the Gazprom government that is running Russia today. There is no threat from the west against Russia’s borders. Remembering recent events in Georgia, the west may react if Russia uses force to expand into more territory. Most likely not with missiles. Against whom must you defend?  Don’t say the west!

In a sharp escalation of military rhetoric, Mr Medvedev ordered a wholesale renovation of Russia’s nuclear deterrence and told military chiefs to draw up plans to reorganise the armed forces by December.

He said that Russia must modernise its nuclear defences within eight years, including the creation of a “system of air and space defence”.

The announcement puts Russia in a new arms race with the United States, which has infuriated the Kremlin by seeking to establish an anti-missile shield in eastern Europe. The US argues that the shield is aimed at rogue states such as Iran, but Russia is convinced that its own security is threatened. (Times Online)

Today in Russian History

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Russia continues to be a dangerous place for journalists and bloggers critical of the current government. While all parties disagree on how and at who’s hands Ingusetia.ru publisher Magomed Yevloyev met his demise, the fact remains he was silenced by violence.

Magomed Yevloyev, owner of the www.Ingushetiya.ru Web site, was arrested at Nazran airport in southern Russia after disembarking a flight, according to a statement by media watchdog Reporters Without Borders. Yevloyev was later found dumped on the side of the road, suffering from a gunshot wound to the head, the news site’s deputy editor, Ruslan Khautiyev, told the Associated Press. Yevloyev later died at a hospital, Khautiyev said.

Yevloyev had angered the region’s Kremlin-backed administration with bold criticism of police treatment of civilians in the region, the AP reported. A court in June accused him of spreading “extremist” statements and ordered him to close his site, but it reappeared under a different name.

The Russian prosecutor general’s office said it would open an investigation into the “incident.”

“While police officers were attempting to transfer M. Yevloyev to an Interior Ministry office, an incident occurred,” said Vladimir Markin, a spokesman for the investigative committee of the prosecutor general’s office, according to the Interfax news agency. “M. Yevloyev received a gunshot wound to the temple area.”

A lawyer for Yevloyev ridiculed the explanation and said police dumped Yevloyev on a road after shooting him.

“It was in no way a mistake,” the lawyer, Kaloi Akhilgov, told Reuters. (Yahoo)

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